Webwide Applications
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Since the rise of the Web, Microsoft Corp. doomsayers have mused--with unjustified optimism--that the world's premier software company's reign of terror might end. But most new ideas, announced with great fanfare, haven't threatened the Redmond empire. In every case, Microsoft has intercepted a new trend and turned it to its advantage. Network Computers (NCs) became Network PCs, Java became Java for Windows, and Netscape Communications Corp.'s Web browser became just another product for Microsoft to copy.
Still, a new trend has arisen as the next Microsoft doomsday scenario. It might be called the Webwide application (OK, so I'm not great at names). A company called Software.com Inc. in Santa Barbara, Calif., has coined another name for the trend:
carrier-scale applications. It's an intriguing concept and could prove to be the next challenge for Microsoft.
The idea is similar to Oracle Corp. CEO Larry Ellison's current incarnation of the NC. While Ellison acknowledges that the concept of the NC as a specialized device has lost its sparkle, he still promotes the principle of storing applications on servers rather than on clients.
The PC with a browser has become the new NC. The Webwide application takes this idea one step further: Instead of individual corporations managing server applications, the Webwide application is sold to or created by Internet service providers (ISPs) and major Web portals for anyone to access. This aspect makes the concept at least an order of magnitude bigger than Ellison's original NC idea because large portals have millions of users. Software.com says 25 million people use its e-mail application, usually provided free to customers by companies such as @Home Network, Excite Inc. and others. Software.com plans to expand into other applications, such as a calendar system. Late last year, IBM Corp. reached an agreement with Software.com to add its own technology--including voice mail and fax software--and to act as a reseller.
And Software.com isn't alone. Yahoo Inc. develops its e-mail, calendar and other applications internally. Sun Microsystems Inc. is also creating applications to sell to ISPs. The interesting thing about this trend is that it doesn't slow the momentum the PC and the Internet have gathered. One problem with the thin-client/heavy-server idea promoted by Oracle is that it tries to counter the inexorable shift that's moving computer power out of MIS managers' hands and into end users' hands. But when portals offer these application services free, the power and choice are again in the hands of end users.
Of course, the idea still has a few bugs. For one thing, this client/server model seems disturbingly like a throwback to the terminal/mainframe model. Software.com President Valdur Koha says his company's advantage is that the software scales easily without having to redistribute the files when portals add new servers. Nevertheless, if portals or ISPs don't add servers quickly enough, or if the model of offering free software to attract more customers doesn't pay off, the system could break down.
Another issue is whether people will continue to trust outside companies to store and manage their personal data. And, who's to say Microsoft won't figure out how to take over this business, too? After all, it has already purchased San Francisco-based LinkExchange Inc. and Sunnyvale,Calif.-based Hotmail Corp., both of which offer free software. The problem for Microsoft could be its mind-set. Bill Gates has always believed in the power of the desktop. He's dedicated to the idea of a fat client running all your applications. He refuses to acknowledge that the client/Web approach is replacing the client/server model.
It's too soon to call the Webwide application idea a winner, but it has momentum. And besides, Microsoft doomsday scenarios are what keep this business interesting.
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