Rob,
My full-time position now is program management in fixing the US Navy's Y2K problem. We've made one ^*(^(*& of a lot of headway in getting there and we've got a way to go, but we'll get there. Aside...I view Y2K as something like the change in GATT(General Accounting .... sp? Al help me here) a few years ago where companies were no longer able to amoritize retirement costs forward and had to write them off in the current year being a big tax on earnings across a lot of companies...I see the same thing happening here. I see some big "one time" write offs in fourth quarter 1999/first quarter 2000 to pay for the fixes.
Yes, I do see a lot of litigation next year against companies that weren't prepared. I've thought about hiring myself out as an expert witness in what companies should have done...the money is great! $3,000/day {100 shares of NXTL?}. Anyway, I've been considering shorting "Spiders" later in the year against what I see as a major correction based on these expenses early next year. Also considering a way to short a basket of insurance companies as they will be the ones to probably pay for most of these lawsuits.
I have heard many of my comtemporaries, in the Y2K business, have run off and built bunkers in Montana or New Mexico. I won't go that far, but I will fill an extra bottle of propane, have a grand or so in cash and maybe a few gold coins and a decent supply of non-perishable food. After all in Southern California, we should have that all the time with the earthquake risk.
Food for thought...Comments??????
Kevin |
