CB,
1. Up early today? Me too...had to feed everybody's critters since my friends went to Florida, Mexico & other warm places. I never get to go. My wife leaves me & kitty behind every vacation too.
2. Agreed. We can hope for this to culminate quickly, if it's not too much trouble for NAVR mgmt. Maybe last half of Apr.
3. The Math. Conclude that we will never get the numbers because so many moving pieces. It's a fascinating dynamic.
4. NETR. With S-1 Offr Amt of $33 Mil over expected 2 Mil shs offered, Offr price maybe $16. They'll issue $10 Mil addl shs at least. Steady State Mkt Cap of $200 Mil. Recent, similar spinoffs say this will bounce from $16 to $39 then slowly come down over time. We will soon know.
5. NAVR. With NETR Mkt Cap of $200 Mil at Steady State, what's NAVR worth? Initially, the NAVR Float can be as low as 7 Mil shs...Everen controls another 6.5 Mil and there's another 4 Mil sitting there to issue. From NETR $200 Mil at Steady State, NAVR could be valued at $29, $17 or $13 per shs. But, NETR Valuation will pop higher based on recent, similar IPOs. So, NAVR should be much higher vis-a-vis higher NETR expectations and valuations.
6. Pre-IPO. While we're trying to dump our load before the IPO, so will Everen and NAVR as they try to get the Mkt Cap up by issuing shares. Plenty of Supply. Hopefully, Demand will be skyrocketing. Then, there's the MMs. The uneven matching of Supply & Demand is how this thing becomes a 5-bagger for a brief moment. To everyone's delight.
7. Post-IPO. I hope NAVR does an M&A. I don't care whether or not they use purchase or pooling treatments. They've been stiffed a lot given their $6 Mil in bad debt owed them which they might convert and issue as stock. No doubt, there's folks looking to pick off baby NETR. If NAVR and Everen pull this off, NAVR will be flush with cash. Maybe somebody is bringing them a bunch of new ideas too.
8. We wanted this and we will get what we deserve, either way.
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