Thanks PG & RTQ for the various suggestions. I'm researching them.
RTQ - I actually bought a small stake in PETD last week.
I'd love to hear more suggestions from any of the other lurkers here.
I have held TMAR and HMAR for a while (at >70% loss!), and won't be
averaging down. I think TMAR is in quite good shape, but I'm a little
worried about HMAR. I suspect that even if oil prices recover there
will yet be some blood spilled in this sector.
I like the idea of buying blue-chip-like stocks at a discount, so I'll
certainly be looking closely at RIG and SLB. However, I suspect that
the producers will be first to benefit from a rise in price, so might
well end up with some EVER, XTO or APC first.
One thing that occured to me is that the logical conclusion of my
number crunching on SFY (which I posted last week) is that you could
logically tie the various ratios together to "predict" the share price
for a certain market price.
IF SFY's EPS is 2c per each 1c in market price above $1.60, and IF their
average PER is 16.5 then -
1) If NG/Oil achieves $2.05 (average) this year then they should
make $0.90, and by this time next year the share price should be $15.
2) If NG/Oil achieves $2.55 (average) in 2000 then they should make
$1.90, and in two years time should be trding at $32.
The downside would be continuing weakness in market prices and the
probability that SFY will want/need to raise more capital through
issuing more shares (which will dilute us all out a little). However,
there is also much upside potential as well - they could trade on a
much higher multiple, and we already have a prediction of $2.70 NG for 2000.
This is of course wild crystal ball gazing, but it does give us some
insight into the risk:reward ratio. It also gives some credibility
to the MSN article (produced before the dive) which rated SFY as a $50
stock by the end of last year (!)
Mark |
