The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club

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To: Stefan who wrote (3648)	3/7/1999 10:06:00 AM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (4) of 15132

Stafan: re:< He seemed to be too positive like the rest of the financial media. > Amazing how different people hear different things. Hopefully between all of us, we'll hear what was actually said. Here's what I heard: > Last week's rally to marginal new highs had unimpressive volume and breadth. The DOW is only 4% higher that the July 1998 pre-correction high of last summer (To put things in perspective). > NAZ is lagging - still 7% under recent record highs. Many big name tech stocks that have lead the market recently are now lagging (CISCO off 14%, YAHOO off 28%, AMZN off 39%) probably because the NAZ was trading at record P/E 100. > The 5% mild correction we've had in the DOW and S&P500 is inadequate to be the basis of a significant rise in the market from this point, although we can expect to see DOW 10,000 some time this year. (he had warned last summer not to lower go-forward expectations of returns). > The Long-Term Treasury Bond is trading as if the economy is growing too fast and investors are expecting the FED to raise rates to slow an overheating economy later this year. That rate did not drop much after "last Friday's labor report supposedly relieved investor worry that rates will rise" according to the financial media. Imho, these are hardly 'over positive" observations. To the contrary, I'm interpreting them as a warning not to trust this rally. Brinker did clarify that "getting asset allocation levels down to sleep levels" does not mean taking defensive measures to become less than 100% invested in the market for the equity portion of one's asset allocation because his Timing Model shows ZERO CHANCE of a Bear Market "AT THIS TIME". P

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