Where are the longer term analysis?
Most of the market analysis on SI is done by short term traders and scalpers. To me, from a purely objective mathematical, probability, and theoretical standpoint, this is a losing battle from the get go.
Also, it lends itself to a whipsaw. When you try to trade market volatility, and your using sensible money management techniques, you need to make many successful scalps to make a living. When you start decreasing the time horizon and increasing the trading frequency, the law of averages works against you.
It's easier to jump on a longer term wave and forget the daily ripples to make the huge gains. Most recently Micron springs to mind. The whole Wall Street establishment was yelling BUY BUY, and the thing was already parabolic, and technicians were all saying UP. But a slightly longer term view said down, and that's where the killing was made ;-)
Everybody is screaming UP for the market now, but I think a slightly longer term view says DOWN (especially the Nasdaq). |
