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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 144.89-1.7%12:09 PM EST
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To: Jess Beltz who wrote (7706)3/7/1999 12:03:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Jess I think that the time to get back into semis will not come until at least June, maybe latter. I expect the current rally to provide exit point, but do not expect this rally to persist longer than the end of this month maybe another week or two in April.

I am not particularly bearish, I see the market retrenching to about 8250 to 8400 on the DOW and expect the NAZ to hold the line on about 2100 or so (maybe a day or two spring under 2000 to spook everyone). After that, I expect the long term bond to trade in a range of 5.875% down to 5.125% which in my opinion will prevent the DOW from going above 10,000 that so many bulls are predicting. Later in the year (with the bond in the lower part of the range and the Dow well under 9000) I expect another liquidity driven substantial rally. The excess liquidity will come, IMHO, from dispostalization in Japan. I think that the SOX will be a major drive in this rally, first because we will be post some sizeable retrenchment (like INTC having touched if not breached $95, where it will be a bargain, IMHO) and because the industry will be in the throws of a cyclical expansion.

Zeev
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