I think CBS site caters for global equities.
I will be leaving for
Kuwait for next few days I thought to recap market.. I was looking at the various indexes and I would like to highlight the following very simple levels collected from various charts.. I see some pre- bhumbo formations it is still in infancy but talking and highlighting it is must.. however look at Fran's charts and you will see that post Dec SP99H basing developing, the fact remains that this test of 1278 is the most critical of all and a failure here without a quick rebound from 1251 would mean some trouble for this bhumbo, it may die prematurely. New long's should only be intiated above 1295 area after a double close or 645 on OEX double close.
1.. Composite- 2280 is the support below that I will be careful, and 2400 is the next resistance if it takes this level out we will see that 2510 high.
2.. In Transportation and Banking was the key of this move, I was highlighting these two indexes for this very move, the reason I was positive was that BKX and DTX were not breaking rather their move that is that infamous confluence chart of 50 days and 200 days MA indicated to me that from 311 this DTX is wanting to go higher, nothing satisfies more than the fact that BKX and DTX did lead this particular move up..
DTX is moving towards 3360 and support at 3224, a break below this will give you an early indication of some serious erosion. We need to see some two or three days close on these indexes, they are lagging indexes as such we may see some false break consolidation but the trend will remain higher if the supports are not violated. My whole experience tells me anyone who tells you market is ready for a fall is a person who is poor in judging markets.
The acid test to know a person's ability is his/her call on future projection, is only possible with predictions of neatly overlooked levels like my level of 1228. It was with exception of one day violated that we called a false break but otherwise we saw most of our levels without getting seriously whipsawed, this is the art to trade the big momentum down get the big premiums and don't get swayed with the noise. These 'magicians blokes' by disregarding the most important cardinal principle of the market to trade within limits and ranges like 1228 to 1290 or 1278 on SPC or that 1935 level on NDX. It is not serious to suggest a big or a small fall without any consideration of medium supports, how can a person buys a put if 1228 remains technically solid.
If market projection is 'reasonable art' than I can understand a prediction of a move with some intermediate supports but to pass a 'summary death warrant' remains beyond me. Of-course if fundamental picture on macro level changes, judgement lie a 1000 point or 500 points drop are OK. To be eternally depressed is not my definition of playing markets. The opportunities lost, as a case of eternal depression is story of some of these sorry characters. I take exception as SI needs a balanced view and these 'unbalanced views' should know that someone out their will post their eternal depressing record one of these days!!
Once if calls are made without any regard to these important supports, rest assure it is no more market calls, these are what I term as 'fly by night wham - bang good bye sham calls'. What difference does it make if TXN 18 point move was missed, they are anyway not interested to invest only to create panic and fear, it is moves like TXN and CSCO's which provide you with real winners in intra-day movements. When I called for that big move on TXN CSCO I was hoping for rebound like this, and these are kind of rebounds one makes good of its labor in the market.
For any serious investor my advice is 'market is subservient to lot of academic input' their are no 'short cuts', a persistent performer will do his news well and know the psychology of the most manipulated market in the world the world of SP99H trading, learn and see the manipulations as they run trades to stop the innocent big ego's.
Someone who will know his levels like back of his hand will fearlessly trade them will see them too. In a trending market you see your levels that is one thing an investor should learn. If new highs are made that is a bullish sign and if old supports are taken out it is bearish sign. A bounce of 50 days or 200 days average should not be traded on opposite side, give some room to trade on side of the bounce with little generous stop loss. Crating 'TA' is not the subject it is making the right call more often than not.
It was sad to see that the bounce off DTX at 200 days MA was shorted, when I was going long it had to be a short and imagine that BKX 750 test of the long support going back to Dec was even traded on the short side. They got it on the chin umpteenth time. A trader in non-inflationary growth environment will never trade 200 days bounce on the opposite side or a test of 1320 composite which was a two year low, the bond was breaking and I was seeing this huge move up as I called it but at the same time 'computer' were telling to short, a short which saw NDX at 1780 in a few weeks.
If any programmer or computer tells you otherwise, just pack those programs away. It is simple trend-lines and MA's along-with global macro-economic fundamentals applicable to the market supports and resistance's, once you master that you play market like a maestro.
OEX 640 is critical we have seen a test but once it is taken out we will see a second new high been taken out other than DOW, that is one thing you need to be careful. SP99H 1290 and 1278 will give in my opinion some tough time to this market, I would think that market at these levels will not accept this huge gap, but unfortunately since every 'Harry' want's to go long at 1251 now it may be delayed. If we go down, we will go lower. In these circumstances like on trade issue, mind it and wait for that 1231 area if it come soon. I think this may possibly be delayed and another test of 1261 may just be enough to take this 1278 out on SPC.
If this gap is delayed it will come at the most inopportune time, when wounded guru's may go long may be time to short, when the new 'death dance of the market' collectively is sung go long. This is conventional wisdom of SI. Let me tell you one small thing when everyone on SI is bearish just go the other way, it is on percentage basis 92 calls out 100 of some of these densely bearish guru's on which market will move exactly the other way, SI is the best contrary indicator.. Long live the bears.
I will like RUT to break this 402 and one can go long to 428 and 448 objective. Last but least if market breaks 1218 we go lower and test 1185 area. I have been highlighting for quite some time, if you see that happening don't panic all these trade wars and looming Chinese devaluation's talk are nothing in comparison to global trade volume and what we saw in 98. A market which could withstand the ultimate test of HSI double play and LTCM 100 billion $ fiasco needs lower earnings, big slow down and a real big strategic tension between Russia and US or China to break, this is my scenario building for a opposite view.
As far as Russia get their bucks from IMF and they tow the political line dictated by IMF I see no problems this market if anytime will be hit big it will be politics and rising global tension otherwise at the moment this looks like going higher.. But any highs are finally validated by test of lows like a band we see since Dec 98, 1170 and 1290 this is the kind of consolidation which market needs if it is strong enough to make that assault to new highs.
I think I see a pre- bhumbo formation, I had released my 'bhumbo' on 8th Oct 98 after 28th Oct 97, it is now getting readied and I just htought a fore warning to my 'short' fly by night traders will not be a bad idea.. It is premature but I can see 'bhumbo' engines being ignited, but I will keep in touch with you on formulations and sensitivities of this bhumbo, for me it has to be BKX DTX NDX RUT PSE targets which need to be met, once I have them I will release it, right now I have got the first early signal, but I am still leaving it down..
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