bobby, we know that the weekly summation died at or under zero in 1957 and currently, on a recovery high in the markets, using either NYA or the Dow.
(a similar example is Dec-Jan '73)
From there, looking at the daily 1% ema of a-d:
decisionpoint.com
decisionpoint.com
decisionpoint.com
we can see that the 1% a-d ema died at zero, the markets sold off, and then there was one more rally, to new highs, presumably a very narrow one judging from the a-d line, which did not make a recovery high in the a-d.
The June-July 1957 new high in the Dow was 1.35% higher than the previous high; the Dec-Jan '73 new high in the Dow was 1.49% higher than the previous high.
Therefore, this new high might be limited to somewhere around 9774 or 9786 versus the previous high of 9643.32, on a closing basis, before a substantial stairstep down type of decline occurs.
If the basic premise is correct.
On the other hand, maybe we have been consolidating for the past two months, have double bottomed at the a-d trendline from 1994, and we are off to the races. The S&P 500 l dividend -yield ratio, at
yet another historic extreme, argues against that resolution, but
that's a fundymental.
I got stopped out Friday morning on my intermediate term short position and am going to wait to see a few days of market action.
Vitas
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