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Biotech / Medical : T/FIF Portfolio
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To: smh who wrote (667)3/7/1999 6:37:00 PM
From: Mike McFarland  Read Replies (1) of 1073
 
But FBIOX still suffers from rapid turnover of
it's managers--about once a year they shuffle and
bring a new fellow in for training...I beleive we
have seen four fund managers in as many years now.

Fidelity also can (perhaps unwittingly) artificially
affect performance...I would not be surprised to find
that the stocks which reside in FBIOX are increasingly
large positions in many of the other Fidelity funds,
Amgen is in a lot of funds now. I refuse to believe
that fbiox leading performance has anything to do with
good stock picking. It might be fair to say that the fund
managers have had the sense up til now to stay in the
first tier momentum stocks--but not a lot of real research
neccessary to know which those stocks are.

Just as Dell and MSFT and AOL are topping out...so will
Amgen and Biogen--and certainly big pharma. After all,
consumers can only suck down so many of the old drugs--
and big pharma is going to be relying on blockbuster
replacements for old ones--we have seen that with all
the compitition for arthritis meds...IMNX is starting
to eat big pharma's lunch. The biotech companies should
help bring down big pharma growth rates and they
increasingly take a bigger piece of the pie--I should
think you will see big pharma bidding for the next IMNX
blockbuster, with the pharma cut getting smaller and
smaller. Who else belongs in that club besides Amgen
and Biogen--which will be the next biotech stocks to
ascend to the level where they don't have to whore
themselves out to big pharma?

I'm sure you want to be in the niche players, which
is second and third tier biotech. I just wish I had the
sense a year ago to go with IMNX, SEPR, MNLM and the likes,
and they start to dabble in third tier. I am always too
early--at least my wife say so.
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