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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: JRI who wrote (50419)3/7/1999 8:38:00 PM
From: Earlie  Read Replies (1) of 132070
 
John:
Your point is well taken. Still, I suspect that even Intel believers are shocked that such an unforeseen event could have occurred so quickly.
What might have been added is that there has been a remarkable shift in Intel's fortunes during the past year. I doubt that anyone would have dreamed that any company could take serious market share away from INTC a year ago, never mind supercede Intel in the U.S. retail desktop sector. It is also rather remarkable that AMD is "production limited" (i.e. can sell everything that it can make), whereas that is not the case for Intel. I would point out that Intel is also losing former "loyalists" (GTW being the latest) and would have lost more if AMD had been able to deliver.

Then there is the growing problem with Rambus.

I still think that puts on Intel are a great way to make money over the next few months. If you peruse the last ten quarters, you will find a declining trend that does not support the current PE or stock price. Intel's market share loss has been nothing short of breathtaking, and this at exactly the wrong time,....just as the PC growth heads south.

The global PC market will be fortunate if much more than 82-84 million units are sold this year, and it could be much worse if a recession hits. AMD will likely produce in excess of 5.0 million micros this quarter and the production is climbing. That suggests that AMD will own a quarter of the global market this year, and a smaller market at that. Cyrix isn't standing around either. Intel's problem this year will relate to excess production capacity, which can be a "bear" to deal with.

Best, Earlie
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