Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Razorbak who wrote (39193)	3/7/1999 11:59:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

STOP!!! We are getting way toooooo Bullish here ! ... Now where are Happel & Carpenter et al when you need them ? Did someone say $14 ? Where is NOESIS's $8 now ? I think the question is not what OPEC will do, but how the market will react to what they do, or don't do... I see no ''edge'' in making a ''bet'' on what OPEC would do; too unpredictable at this point in time. As such I wouldn't ''bet'', or predict; but would rather be in a position of 50% cash & 50% ''in'' and ready to move either way - to all cash/ or even short, or fully invested. If OPEC does not cut - I see a ''free money'' short of 10%-15% + in days. For the sake of the contest - it's merely a guess at this point in time; I ''guess'' that OPEC will NOT announce any new additional cuts; but will address the quota baseline issues and will pledge total compliance. Their reasoning imho for no new cuts at this time will be the rising prices of late (unfortunately) and the Saudi Oil Ministers stance that we have a storage problem and not a supply problem... They will point to the declining supply numbers and say that the current cuts if adhered to will be adequate to increase prices. Too many voices saying that there are no reasons for ''new'' cuts when too many players are not in compliance with the ''old'' cuts... At the last minute; OPEC will ''blink'' - greed will over-rule logic and their gamble will cost them short term; but we are headed to where we need to be longterm, based on the declining production side. Without new cuts; the Street will then sell off the OSX to perhaps OSX 40ish. However - that will be the proverbial GaryB ''5th Wave'' and THE bottom. We only need to drive out the OPEC Oil Price Bounce players and will begin the ''real deal'' move upward based on continued supply drawdowns. Only the ''true believers will be in at OSX 40 - Gloom & Doom will flourish. The next good news move will be the continued positive draw downs in supply and from the "summer driving'' season. We will have a slow steady move up based upon ever improving fundamentals. Any upside news on Japanese demand will be a strong catalyst as well. If OPEC announces new cuts - a spike up ! - (OSX70 -72 ?) - then moderate retracement and a slow steady climb... settling at OSX 62-66 where we begin our march forward & upward...

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