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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (39198)3/8/1999 1:57:00 AM
From: The Ox  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
Right here catching up on the weekend posts. I would not short this sector at this time other then to scalp after a run up. Establishing a long(time frame) short is a big mistake, IMO.

I vote with those who say OPEC won't cut further or if they do it will be a token gesture. As long as oil is trending up into the meeting, the immediate pressure to cut should be minimized.

What I find amusing is how you think my caution is overly bearish. When high ranking officials in the ME talk about the possibility of $6 oil, I listen. I don't over react, like some. I put it on the decision making scales and use it to help balance my point of view.

If I was bearish long term, I wouldn't be invested here. Some of your previous posts spoke of changing with the wind, your latest posts appear to be doing just that, but I'm sure you will correct me if my impression is wrong. Just be careful trading, especially when dealing in a commodity based sector. You may find yourself on the wrong side at an inopportune moment.

I think it's much safer to be long then short this sector. Even though oil prices have soared in the last couple of days, I wouldn't stay blind to the fact that if the over all market continues to rally strongly, that the patch won't look very attractive to some. Especially if OPEC fails to cut.

I also think that if oil continues to rise into the OPEC meeting, that a cut in line with expectations won't cause a huge spike up.

I expect oil to trend higher for most of the year on it's way toward $15-16 at year end.
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