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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Michael Burry who wrote (6239)	3/8/1999 8:12:00 AM
From: Wright Sullivan	of 79047

Mike- Thanks for posting the PSFT article link as well as your good "long post". My opinion is that the ERP uncertainty is not over, because newer technologies (thin clients, web-based interfaces) make it harder to charge immense fees for this software. In a 5-10 years, ERP should become as straightforward to use as QuickBooks Pro and Microsoft Office, reducing customization fees. SAP is indeed the gorilla in this sector, but they have not had to change their business model on the fly, and I am thus hesitant to put them anywhere near the MSFT/INTC category of survivor. It will be interesting to see who makes money in the next wave of ERP. I think the whole ERP sector is rapidly approaching a strategic inflection point, as Andy Grove might put it. The only company I own in this sector is Datastream Systems (DSTM), which I have posted on here in the past. I still like DSTM, but am wary of the entire sector due to the uncertain future outlook. -Wright

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