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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: SargeK who wrote (39209)3/8/1999 9:09:00 AM
From: Gary Burton  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Sarge--I'm with you--It wouldn't really surprise me if OSX rose to the high 70's-low 80's in the next 30 days. After all, it would be partially retracing the big wave down from 123 to 45....But where I differ with you is that I expect that the OSX will THEN start its final journey down, this time to a new low....My out of left field guess is that first we will go higher than most expect and after that we will give it all back....I doubt that currently rising oil prices will affect the Ministers' pshchology at all in the meeting. They will all know that if they don't extend the cuts the upside may well vanish overnight (they won't want to gamble on anything not within their control)...I still think that IF there is a meeting there WILL be additional cuts. Too many opec guys are flying all over the place in advance of the meeting (egIran to Ven March 17) for them not to know by say March 19 whether or not addtional cuts are forthcoming. And the only purpose of the meeting now is to formalize additional cuts. None of them want to hold that meeting and then walk out and have it fall flat in their faces. Look at this way-Iran right now KNOWS what it will agree to and what it won't agree to re the 300,000. So, why take the trouble to fly to Ven after meeting with SA? And it is the Iran/SA argument (plus the Ven election) that likley postponed the added cuts/compliance last time around.
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