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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Michael Burry who wrote (6239)	3/8/1999 10:20:00 AM
From: Mike 2.0	Read Replies (2) of 78519

Michael, let me add myself to list of those who think you are dead on wrt PSFT. One wonders whether a put position on PSFT is not unreasonable now. Further, IMO those 2nd/3rd tier ERP firms that _do_ have the vertical competencies that PSFT lacks might be potential takeover candidates going forward. I have thought about possible "indirect plays" on ERP slowdown: First, what about Gartner Group (IT)? It's their job to interpret tech uncertainties such as these ERP developments for us right? Second, business intelligence stocks...companies may focus efforts on getting some useful info out of their ERP systems they have paid so dearly for. Two thoughts: Cognos (COGN) trading around 16x earnings on the face of it seems a good play but I need to do more DD. Also Hummingbird's (HUMC) recent acquisition of PCDocs has drawn analyst boos; at first blush I do see synergy. Cheers Mike

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