XOMA. Bull or Bear? Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear?

XOMA 25.65

+2.6%

3:59 PM EST

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To: aknahow who wrote (8965)	3/8/1999 11:57:00 AM
From: Chris Boylan	Read Replies (1) of 17367

> from george wohanka on Mar 5 1999 11:58PM EST > But in the meningo trial the "problem" has been getting to a pre > established mortality target for all enrolled in the trial. We > believe 365 have ben enrolled and I think the target is higher than > 30 but lower than 40 and it has not yet been reached. My reading of the FAQ is that XOMA does not yet have statistically valid results from the study because not enough people have died across both groups. It appears that there are two possible experimental design issues here. One, they might be experiencing a very low overall death rate or, two, the ratio of deaths between the control and subject groups isn't significant. I've been playing phone tag with this Ellen Martin for a week to see if I could get more information on how they designed the phase III but I've got to say that since this is the second time that XOMA has extended the trial and since the FDA already gave them an easy target for statistical significance that this does NOT look good. I'm beginning to suspect that the stock is dropping off because the institutional investors are sophisticated enough that they've already read the tea leafs correctly. The other issue here is that the stock was 2 bucks not too long ago when it was obvious that they were going to raise more cash, given XOMA's desire to keep 1 year's cash on-hand, and nothing has changed to sustain the stock above 3. So it might be that the stock is just retreating to 2 following an unsustainable run-up. [Not in any way connected to the companies financing activities of course.] The stock really should be trading at 2 or lower anyway: They still don't have any prospects for revenue. They can't get a joint venture until they can show that Neuprex actually does something (chant E5 E5 E5 to yourselves). Every 6-9 months they will raise more cash through some type of mechanism that will be dilutive. Mark it on your calendar for September. As an aside, investing in companies like XOMA is no different than wild-catting in Texas at the turn of the century. You either make a fortune or lose everything. I've gotta say that right now XOMA is starting to look like a dry hole.

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