28? Gosh, somehow I must have gotten above market execution. :-) Try in the 29+ range.
If you read my posts on SI and Yahoo CAREFULLY, you'll discover that my belief in NXTL's fundo future hasn't changed one whit. You'll also discover that I've turned bearish on the overall market. Since I went public with my new-found bearishness, the market set new highs but my opinion hasn't changed. As for NXTL and how it fits into the overall market, the near term technical picture says the the trend is down. When the stock broke 30 I said, "Time to take some $$$ off the table." I did. I still have some serious money in NXTL and will buy back the rest (and then some) at lower levels. Exactly what that level will be remains to be seen. When the time is ripe I will use the 3 days away rule (Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, Edwards & Magee, page 375) to buy back the stock. Thus, I'll let the market tell me when to buy, not the other way round.
Here's one of my posts from Yahoo that summarizes what I see going on:
Actually EOM is not the end of the message in today's action. From a ta point of view, there's no question that NXTL is under distribution. But what is the fundo side that's causing it? Here's my read:
The market is looking for:
1. Wireless market share
2. Rapid rampup in adds
3. Predictability in the above plus forward capex
What NXTL offers:
1. Nearer term OCF+ than digital competitors
2. Nearer term FCF+
3. Nearer term profitability
4. Lower churn
What NXTL lacks:
1. Predictability in capex
2. Proof that they can bridge blue collar mobile work groups to the white collar guys.
3. Awareness that NXTL is playing in the same league as T and PCS
What NXTL shareholders see:
1. League leading arpu
2. League leading OCF+
3. Powerful earning potential of NXTL
4. Undervalued assets
And here's the url: post.messages.yahoo.com@m2.yahoo.com
As to NXTL's OCF+ news, can't you see that the market is looking elsewhere? People are voting with their wallets. I wish it were not so but reality is reality. Do you think that the stock broke 28 today because investors are excited about NXTL's OCF? To quote you, "YOU can't be serious!"
Arnie |
