April Gold -- O 290.4 H 293 L 290.3 C 292.7 Chg. +3.2
With the Dow relatively quiet today, and a stronger Yen, gold took the opportunity to
bounce. Gold had maintained its ground over the last week in spite of the sell off in
silver. Last week, the recent ability to stay supported caused me to think that gold may
want to rally soon...and today may be the beginning of a push higher. There are many
short fund positions and the smallest rally may make them cover before they give back
all their profits. Recently, the Swiss government announced that the sale of half of its
gold reserves might start in late 2000 or 2001. Previously, it had been though that sales
could have occurred much sooner. However, this proposed "sale" many never occur
as many feel that the Swiss people will never vote for such a thing. Many experts still
feel that next year we are going to be range-bound for sometime, which doesn't
surprise me. The technicals and fundamentals remain neutral, but do expect some
tradeable action. Bulls and bears should wait for the market to prove itself first one
way or the other before entering. The nearby technical picture is choppy to bullish.
Gold closed above the 289.2 resistance area for the third consecutive time, and the
resistance 292.6 was also broken today. Consider buying calls or taking a light bullish
futures position. Support is at 287.5 and indicators are moving higher as we are over
moving averages.
May Silver -- O 524.5 H 530 L 524 C 528.8 Chg. +8.5
Silver continues to be active...what fun! Last Friday, the sell off below 520 surely
touched off many stops, but the close above 520 was somewhat encouraging for the
bulls. Today, the bulls took back some territory after the dip late last week. This dip
may prove to be healthy to the bulls. Lease rates are still above normal indicating tight
physical near-term supplies. The London Bullion Marketing Association published the
forecasts of 24 premier precious metals analysts, and for 1999 the average forecast
ranges from $4.25 to $6.40. My advice is to follow price trends as much as possible, but
also try to trade any trading ranges. Two support areas were broken on a closing basis
last week. However, the 513 support area I mentioned was never broken on a closing
basis. I suggested the low 520 area as a reasonable buying area, and so far so good.
Don't risk below 513 on a close. The range of 513-540 may form a right shoulder, which
would be bearish. However, if silver can close above the 540 area this week I feel the
next move higher could break through the 580 area. Ask me what we are doing on our
TradeScope newsletter.
investorlinks.com
|
