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Gold/Mining/Energy : PYNG Technologies

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To: AriKirA who wrote (3384)3/8/1999 10:47:00 PM
From: Jack Rayfield  Read Replies (1) of 8117
 
I am impressed Ari that was a interesting post.

My head hurts from just reading about efficient market theory, but it was very thought provoking.

My theory is that it takes idiots to make a market. Either the people selling are idiots for accepting such a paltry sum for their stock or we (the remaining shareholders) are idiots for remaining optimistic. Only time will tell who the real idiots are.

The lack of reaction to the seemingly positive content of the last several progress reports Pyng has issued, which clearly are meant to show incremental progress leads me to believe we are not dealing with a normal stock which will conform to any market theory.

The only thing that will snap PYT out of this current downtrend is news that will have a direct impact on future earnings like orders or signed contracts with entities which are perceived to have a quantifiable future need for the FAST 1 as soon as it is available in mass quantities.

The only hope I see for this type of news rests on the results of the military training next week. I guess we all have to hope it goes well and orders for future delivery are received and announced. The real question in my mind is whether they would be announced before a ship date could be determined even if they were received.

In my opinion part of the problem is although the potential market is huge, none of the news releases since last summer provide any information by which a near term valuation of PYT could be calculated.

This statement in the June 10,1998 news release is one of several that have contributed to a breakdown of confidence in the potential of the FAST 1:

Rural/Metro Corporation agrees to provide any required logistical and regulatory support needed to rapidly start studies and uses of the F.A.S.T 1 System throughout the Rural/Metro system.

It is hard for most investors (me included) to comprehend that in 8 months there would not be an update on the progress of testing by this potentially major customer. I am sure that a portion of the 100 uses reported through the end of January 1998 were contributed by Rural Metro sites. But we are left to guess the probability of a national rollout of the FAST 1.

I for one plan to stick it out and see more of the cards played as I am convinced that FAST 1 will capture a significant portion of the potential market eventually and I am a relatively young man ( not compared to you but to the general population). In my opinion the current stock price has nothing to do with potential and everything with lack of interest. Not many people are satisfied to wait months or years for the market to recognize they need this life saving product without some sign posts by which to evaluate it's current value.

If someone asked me today what is my estimate of earnings for the next 12 months I would be hard press to answer as there are still so many variables. The goal posts continually move further and further out. This would be a red flag for anyone that knows me as I am usually pretty quick to respond to such a question. It is easy for me to see why some people have thrown in the towel.

JMHO
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