Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Death Sphincter who wrote (38081)	3/8/1999 11:28:00 PM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (4) of 94695

>>>if it does scenario #1 it looks like the 1% might just get back to the zero line again doesn't it? and then whammo<<< getting back to zero would negate the bearish pattern in the 1% ema in 1957, on the last gasp rally, on 7/10/57 it failed at -10.92 in 1973, on the last gasp rally, on 1/3/73 it failed at -3.93 compared with those two situations we are now about twenty trading days beyond where the last gasp rally peaked in '57 and '73. So timewise, we are overdue for the rumble. because of that, we don't necessarily have to get the 1% ema of a-d to head towards zero. With today's negative breadth, the 1% ema ticked down. Any further weakness in the a-d tomorrow would send it lower still and on its way. Any further weakness in the NAZ a-d figures tomorrow will create a peak in the NAZ mcclellan oscillator below a declining trendline from November. Unfortuneately, once it gets rolling it appears it will be a stairstep decline. One sticking point is that somewhere around March 11 bond coupon money gets reinvested. Trin5 at 3.77 on negative breadth. Vitas

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