For those of you who like facts and figures courtesy of csy2k:
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Facts:
semichips.org
semichips.org
semichips.org
There are roughly 2.3B MPUs sold worldwide from 1980-1999. The US owns
roughly 70% of these.
If .2% fail, it is 4,600,000. US share: 3,220,000
If 2.0% fail, it is 46,000,000. US share: 32,200,000
If 7% fail, its 161,000,000. US share: 112,700,000
IF each MPU is on a network with 10 other devices in such a way that
if 1 fails, they all fail, and they are uniformly distributed, then
we have (US) 161M networks. If the number is 5 devices per, then divide the
network failure rates below in 2.
Then 0.2% MPU failures will cause (US) 3.2M/161M = 1.9% of the networks to
fail.
Then 2.0% MPU failures will cause (US) 32.2M/161M = 20% of the networks to
fail.
Then 4.0% MPU failures will cause (US) 64.4M/161M = 40% of the networks to
fail.
Then 7.0% MPU failures will cause (US) 112M/161M = 69.5% of the networks to
fail.
Talk about exponential growth!
God, I hope its a 0.2% failure rate!
Still a coward, unarmed, and anonymous,
Z
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Data:
irs.ustreas.gov
(download it, run it, and then load the excel spreadsheet)
In 1996, the breakup of assets of the US were as follows:
Transportation and public utilities 2.1T (13.6%)
Manufacturing 5.4T (18.8%)
Construction 0.289T (1%)
Mining 0.302T (1%)
Agriculture, Forestry 0.093T (0.3%)
Wholesale Retail Trade 2.0T (7%)
Services 1.0T (3.5%)
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 17.5T (61%)
Total 28.6T (100%)
I predict that of the 1.61B MPUs (see posting "Data: MPUs") that will fail,
they will be roughly distributed by percentages of the total category assets.
If 2.0% of all 1.61B US MPUs fail:
Transportation and public utilities 4.4M (13.6%)
Manufacturing 6.0M (18.8%)
Construction 0.320M(1%)
Mining 0.32M(1%)
Agriculture, Forestry 0.1M(0.3%)
Wholesale Retail Trade 2.26M(7%)
Services 1.12M(3.5%)
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 19.6M (61%)
Total 32.2M (100%)
Although I believe that for MPU failures, the Finance category could lend
some % to "transportation and public utilities" and "manufacturing". This
would only be a guess, though.
I believe similar statistics for the y2k mainframe problem is distributed
likewise (lines of code).
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Note: The link to irs.ustreas.gov failed. I'll try and work with it later to reconstruct a working link. Asset classification for tax purposes may be a very different animal as opposed to asset classification for standard accounting practices in this case. It is difficult to say what this irs breakdown really tells us. |
