INDEX UPDATE
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As mentioned previously, I have CLASS 1 SELLs across the board with the BUY-IN at todays highs, and that I felt the key to whether this uptrend continues to produce HIGHER HIGHs and HIGHER LOWs is how the NEW HIGHs/NEW LOWs perform.
The NEW HIGHs yesterday closed at 81 with the NEW LOWs at 55, while the previous day the NEW HIGHs closed at 77 and the NEW LOWs at 40 which is a slight negative but nothing convincing. So for now I cant make any conclusion from this slight increase in the NEW LOWs. However keep in mind that when the NEW LOWS stay in the 50 range it should always signal caution.
Most of the DOW INDEXes are lagging the DOW, such as the TRAN, XAL, UTY, BKX, HFX, CEX, FPP, CYC. Only the DRG, healthcare and retail indexes are in line with the DOW. For the DOW theorists - the TRAN and UTY are lagging and still diverging to the downside from the DOW.
With the help from the NAZ the SPX did set a NEW HIGH which is a strong positive for the market.
For the MID-TERM(30 days), I dont want to say that Im turning bullish but I do feel we could head higher; However any further upmovement to NEW HIGHs after this forthcoming dip, would probably be on weak legs.
What I am suspecting is somewhat ZIG-ZAGGING pattern with a slight INCLINE into early APRIL. To clarify:
1) a small dip to start today
2) upswing during expiration week
3) another small dip after expiration week
4) then one more upswing into the first week of APRIL
The first week of APRIL should be the top of the 9 month cycle, which has been a pretty accurate on a statistical basis.
Please keep in mind that the interest rates are still in an uptrend.
Seeya |
