I can't win !? can't buy the bottoms & can't sell the tops ?!? <VBG> !
...but, my job is not to placate the masses - it is to make money - period.
<< Ummm. Slider, did the OSX hit 68 or 75 today while I wasn't looking? I coulda swore just a couple of days ago you said that if OPEC cuts, then we're off to 68 or 70. Something like that.>>
Let me elucidate -(sarge gave me that word):
...by ''the cuts being fully priced in here'' ; I do not mean we are not going higher. If OPEC cuts we most assuredly will go to OSX 68-75. That is not what I am saying and you are missing a very, very, important point - actually the entire point - the point that will take all the money you just made on ''paper'' if you ''don't get it'' !
...and don't miss the point of ''paper'' profits versus real cash in the till... it ain't profit untill you SELL !
The Street has run this sector up on ''ONLY" the expectation of OPEC announcing additional, new cuts. The Street does not yet believe the very positive ''early'' indicators that will remain unchanged and very positive - regardless if OPEC does, or does not cut and the Street sells us off. I will rebuy that bottom as well and I am prepared to profit in either direction. Again - I don't want the last part of the move - I want the first 50-75%...in early beating the crowd to the party & the first to leave...
Today's and tomorrow's prices are fully factoring in OPEC cuts - they are not here because of the undervalued nature of the 'patch; they are here because of the run up that expectations of OPEC are generating. They will leave faster than they came - if OPEC disappoints.
Virtually the entire run up to the meeting has that factored in. If OPEC does not cut - we will get sold off and shorted unlike ANY prior cycle - bank on it. If OPEC doesn't cut - the Street will vanish from the Oilpatch. - but , that is actually good news both for traders and longterm investors. As we will possibly get a lower low to re-buy; and finally the next move will be a permanent one - based upon declining supply and slow, steadilly increasing fundamentals - NOT, a 50/50 gamble of a meetings results... but ''real'' fundamentals.
Betting here is just that - BETTING, a gamble on OPEC. NOT taking ''some'' profits is playing into the hands of the Street - this is not the battle that the individual investor can win. You are now playing by THEIR rules - if you play this OPEC game. It is a pure gamble. I will not gamble - I will ''hedge'' my bets. I will take profits on this entire run up and will also, be prepared to go to 100% cash and will actually short the move down if OPEC does not cut.
I love the underlying fundamentals here - the Street still isn't sold; I am. I love the Oilpatch; but I compete against the Street. They want my money and I want theirs. I can NOT play by their rules and win. I must take advantage of their weakness - that being things like the tax loss selling by the funds at year end and the quick trading opp by taking profits in Jan. That means buying the end of month and end of quarter - ''Window Dressing Selloffs'' by the funds and buying headlong into any major selloffs as they can not have deadmoney and must trim losses even in good stocks - ala~ RIG because they must compete against both the Market average and fellow Funds & Managers. That also means TAKING PROFITS right here - right NOW ! - imho.
I can afford end of the month/quarter underperformance, I can sit in deadmoney, I don't have to take tax loss selling , I don't have to do any window dressing, I don't have to cover any shorts on good news - as I saw the good news before they did and I don't compete against anyone but myself !
Be smart - play by our rules - not theirs. This is ''fast'' money - this is short covering money - this is NOT - ''True Believer'' money; sell into the Streets greed - buy their fear... They are greedy right here - they really do not believe.... use it to your advantage.
..PS Lehman Bros. just said ''the prices here fully factor in OPEC cuts'' ... decide for yourself. I am not betting on OPEC - I allready have my profit and it is CASH in the till.... good luck.
...Dawg - tell them - they don't see the 85mph fastball waist high and right down the middle of the plate here. I do - I just put it in the upper deck and I am circling the bases.... Batter Up ! |
