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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: kash johal who wrote (51960)	3/9/1999 1:01:00 PM
From: RDM	Read Replies (1) of 1578096

kash <It looks like they are learning the game slowly but painfully. For the first quarter they were forecasting 5.5M. Now for Q2 after problems allegedly fixed they are only forecasting 5.0M> It interesting that in the January CC I recall them forecasting approximately 22-24 million CPUS for the year. That is there was no forecasted increase in CPU count from the current rate despite the Dresden fab coming on line. In most forecasts things are forecasted higher that the current run rate and not level as in the AMD 1999 "CC" CPU chip forecast. I concluded that this meant that AMD would have to process more wafers of the K6-III and K-7 type to get the same number of chips. This would be a forecasted increase for wafer starts but since the die size is larger, particularly for .25 micron runs, then total number of parts may be the same. Hopefully, the revenue could be up by as much as 50% or more due to the higher planned ASP of the K6-III. Thus the 5 million pieces is perhaps a 10% shortfall in what they said they were planning. The revenue and profit shortfall will be greater since the "late chips" are the highest price and most profitable to produce. There will be a "significant loss" this quarter, but that was indicated before in the first week of February. The real question is what about next quarter. Will the K6-III be plentiful at 400-450? Allen says they will. fnews.yahoo.com <As for proof that the worst is behind AMD, Allen says, "We have seen the silicon coming out of the [manufacturing plant] for March," he says. "We know we are back on track in frequency output." > Will the mobile K6 be plentiful at the 380 MHz, 366 MHz, and 350 MHz speed? Atiq Raza said they had a production run of K7 underway. Twelve weeks from March 8 is May 31. What will AMD do with five hundred wafer of K7s coming out of fab on May 31? Will they announce a 600 Mhz K7 in May or June?

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