StockOperator,
The problem I have playing the upside, is that the number of stocks moving up are less and less. Those that move up, move up big which skew the index to the upside. Its just getting harder and harder to find stocks to buy to the upside. The usual stocks in the past to go long with like INTC, DELL, CPQ, CSCO, GTW, LU are only showing signs of weakening. Most of the strength is only in a few DOW stocks, like GM, MRK, UTX, JPM, JNJ.
Its just getting harder and harder to find stock with strength, but easier to find more stocks to go to the downside on runups. Granted that the DOW can go to 10000 or higher, but what stocks to buy. This may sound funny, but it appears to be easier to play the indexes to the upside and stocks to the downside.
If one is only holding some good stocks then they should probably hold a little longer, but for those who are looking to initiate long position RIGHT NOW, it just seems tougher.
This is not to start an arguement, but what stocks would you pick to buy right now? Even MCD which was really hot is getting cut down.
Since I closed/hedged my longs in JAN only 1 stock is back to where it was when the DOW hit 9600 in JAN, I will admit, that I am a lousey stock picker so that could be the excuse. However, I know so many who have invested stocks like AMR, IP, UK, CAT, DIS, AA, BEL, and they are going nowhere but down. Some also bought DELL near 110.
I guess my point is that the media and the analyst will keep on telling everyone how great the market is that it was almost at 9800 today, but with the average investor I know, they are all starting to hurt. Hey it could be that those I know are lousey stock pickers like me but they were just taking the advice of the analysts.
seeya
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