>> " ... however, the return of Targretin rights will now permit us to rapidly generate revenues from distribution agreements pending in territories in which we will not directly market Targretin in oncology and dermatology" said Ligand Chairman, President and CEO David E. Robinson. "We expect these opportunities plus potential milestone revenue from the second generation compounds will contribute to our march to profitability this year and next," he continued <<
Bob, I still think that the TOP sentence is a difficult one to decipher. So how can I hold Robinson to any particular meaning?
(And i do NOT think this confusion is intentional, or devious. In 25 years, I've seen too many hastily written, confusing corporate memos authored by nice, honest people to be surprised at seeing another one.)
While I have ZERO experience in sales and marketing, I tend to agree with Henry's interpretation of Sentence #1. Right NOW, Ligand gets some kind of fee paid to them by their distributors -- who will be selling (hopefully) the already-for-sale Ontak and Panretin gel. If the distributor thinks he'll eventually get to handle bigger quantities of merchandise because of Targretin, then Ligand might get a better deal right NOW on some current cut. Anyway, that's as good a guess as any.
THIS revenue, pieced together with any milestone revenue from partners is welcome -- until the Targretin thing comes together, hopefully before the $70m line of credit from Elan is spent.
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As to criticism that the *Company* has made over-optimistic claims, I don't really buy that. It's hard to keep separate in my head what Ligand has said (and when), and what we've said on our thread and heard sell-side and newsletter "analysts" say. (I myself have made two mistakes here -- that I'm aware of.)
As to Ligand making overly hopeful statements? Maybe in the fall of 1996 and 1997 (I've been reading the old press releases). But NOT lately, imo. "March toward profitability" is vague, says nothing except the direction. The only excitable claims lately have been for the PRE-clinical Targretin results -- any number of press releases about that, each saying essentially the same thing, but cumulatively creating a euphoric mood.
In the S8 that they filed with the SEC back in January, they completely re-wrote the LONG "disclaimer" section. I put it in one window, and the comparable section from the 3Q 10Q in another window, and scrolled.
The contents were parallel, but the S8 was a major re-write -- with some material removed and others added. The new version is clear, a terrific job of editing. (Every bit of muddled passive voice was excised, for example.) It was so clear, that I remember thinking, 'WOW they've protected themselves from any potential shareholders' suit!!' One of our regulars posted a message that we should read that S8, and was promptly told it was just boilerplate.
"... potential milestone revenue from the second generation compounds will contribute to our march to profitability this year and next," he continued."
This is hardly hype, unless we want to read optimism between the lines.
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>> "Targretin opportunities" to rapidly contribute towards 1999-2000 revenues. <<
I don't think Robinson or the press release said that.
The words are from two different sentences of the press release.
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I have to fix someone lunch.
Will look more at this sometime later.
(The hazzards of having kids ... <g>
They think i'm running a 24-hour deli ... )
Cheryl |
