Author: DiamondWillie -- Date:1999-03-09 11:37:32
Subject: More than 15MM tonnes doesn't count...
I think I've discovered a new way to make some money. Here's
how it goes.... The analysts on the WSP threads and others have
convinced me that any ore that can't be extracted within about 15
years is worthless to the share price, due to NPV mathematical
considerations that are beyond my understanding. If this be the
case, then maybe we should start a consortium here and take the
worthless remaining 15+ MM tonnes or so off WSP's hands?
Maybe they'd take a token $1 for the remaining kimberlite? Or
they might pay us, since it isn't adding anything to their share value
and there must be expenses assoiciated with having it on their
books. ;-)
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Author: WillP -- Date:1999-03-09 12:41:20
Subject: Well Yes...That Needed Saying
DiamondWillie:
Funny, that. I was just laughing to myself about that very
thought.
Thing is...the price won't move in response to additional
tonnage, above some high but finite amount.
I think they will want to mine for about 15 years, optimally.
If the tonnage increase allows a faster rate of
production...then it "counts". Otherwise, it counts little.
You can see other signs of this. Diavik is spending little on
exploration at the moment...spending instead on bringing
what they have towards production.
That will, of course, change again. Just not soon.
But hey...if you can swindle them out of a few surplus million
tonnes of Snap Lake kimberlite...cut me in for a share. :-)
Regards,
WillP
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Author: jspec -- Date:1999-03-09 12:07:11
Subject: The NR
This obviously quickly thrown together report has given the yawns
to the market,as would be expected. A few more moments and a
judicious phrase or two would have been extremely beneficial.
1. 'not unsurprisingly' with the 3 holes that extended the thinned out
apparent edge of the dyke(sheet).
2. Lumping together of the more prospective other 3 holes on the
north shore with 7 holes drilled from the lake ice is less than
astute-UNLESS it clouds the fact that the prospective 3 north
shore holes are the thinner of the up to 4.8 meters intersections.
Khanna reports that the 6000 tons has already been extracted. All
from the southern extensions of pits 1 and 2 on the NW peninsula.
Time constraints of deliveries over the ice road compelled this
decision.
What good news is to be inferred from the NR? That frequent
timely news will be forthcoming in the days and weeks to come.
This will be welcome change,although it can be noted that from the
beginning of this year news has been released in a timely fashion.
The North Shore can be explored in a thoughtful manner. North by
Northwest is still the theme,with perhaps a little west of L-11.
WillP- After going offline late Sat night,I flipped through the TV
channels and came to rest on John Wayne shinnying up a logging
pole (contest in forest near Seattle) before heading North to
Alaska. I got a chuckle out of that.Do you think anyone else
picked up on the two consecutive post titles?
Looking forward to great days for WSP. I like their chances at
Hilltop.
regards,
jspec
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Author: WillP -- Date:1999-03-09 13:00:36
Subject: Goin' North to Russia Zone
Jspec:
Interesting points. I initially thought you slipped a sprocket
and had come unglued. I then re-read you post carefully a
second and later, a third time. It prompts the following
comments:
#1. Yes. "not surprisingly" could well have been added.
There is more than a bit of confusion here and there over the
implications of those holes. "Up-dip limit" is the key
phrase here. Similar attempts to drill up dip of the outcrop
were made last year. It has to be done. Sadly, a few
individuals are reading negative implications to it all.
#2. The lumping together to mask thinner intersections on
the north shore is at least a remote possibility. However, if
one compares the data to last year's intersections...it's a bit
of a reach. The maximum and minimum intersections, and
average is what would be expected if the north shore and
under-lake dykes were of the same general thickness. It also
would be a departure...since they did previously point out
thinner areas in prior releases. For that matter...they did in
this release as well. I therefore discount the possibility.
Khanna may have reported the mucking is complete...but
Winspear did not. In fact, they said, "...two pits have been
delineated on the northwest dyke and blasting and
mucking of the kimberlite has begun. Kimberlite is
currently being stockpiled and shipping has
commenced to the processing plant."
Blasting and mucking is relatively minor, however. I suppose
it's possible that it was finished between the composition and
release of the news release. If it is not yet completed, it will
be soon. The bagging and transportation of the sample will
take somewhat longer, however. It is reassuring that it is
already enroute to the plant, however.
As I said earlier...I don't think that there will be a north
shore sample either...but it's still remotely possible this
spring. In the long run...it will matter little.
(window problems...hence end part one of two)
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Author: WillP -- Date:1999-03-09 13:18:39
Subject: Where The River Is Winding...Big Nuggets
They're Finding
(part 2)
What good news can be inferred? Well, in addition to your
points, how about:
a) The JV partners appear to recognize the benefit of finding
substantial tonnage on the north shore, and have put in print
their desire "to outline a further possible 3.0 to 5.0
million tonnes of kimberlite.".
b) The chances of major tonnage on land north of the lake
have improved significantly.
c) Careful reading and comparing these releases with ones
prior still yield a wealth of information.
About the two 'titles'...possibly. There's a few individuals
I've duelled titles with, after all. However, ours may have
been a bit dated. Hard to say. :-) I've seen that John Wayne
movie, as I recall.
Here's to great days for the 'spear. My hastily formed
opinion is that Hilltop may have a year to wait.
As always, jspec....great observations.
I must say...I was pretty thrilled with the release, all in all
considered. I've long since stopped worrying what the
market does in reaction to these things.
It's going to be a fun several months, at least.
Take care,
WillP
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