The good news:1
Yes, El...read an article (posted by D. Swiss yesterday) that quotes an Intel VP as saying PIII saying are "ahead of plan"...as of 2 days ago..
Also, Swiss called Intel IR end of last week, said they had no intention of warning (at that time)
Several analysts, IDC, and even the analyst who-everyone-loves-to-hate-but-unfortunately-has-made-some-good-calls Kumar says that worries are overdone (I heard the interview myself)...Niles came out today and said he thought the rumors were not true...that, in March, Intel was on plan...
I really believe that if there was a real problem here, either Niles or Kumar would be all over it...
I think these rumors are desperate shorts trying to buy back the stock at lower levels..
Bad news..
Well, Kumar and Niles see no fall-off (besides seasonal) in PC demand, but they do say that the industry's problems are "company-specific"...it is hard to argue that Compaq did not stuff a little 4Q justified or not), and that they have to work a little off this quarter, and it will hurt earnings a bit...
Good news..
Looks to me....with the downgrades and earnings cuts....bad news already in the stock...
I guess the "joker factor" is the trust issue with CPQ's management..but I think CPQ paid a pretty good price for that already....I think after the non-news from Intel comes out....CPQ will rise above 35 (but below 40)..BUT the market will not pay CPQ a big premium in advance of earnings....the stock, IMO, will not rise too much going into earnings (function of used-credibility, IMO) ...EP is going to have to show the money....
Overall, we are reaching bottom here, IMO....
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