Tip, here is my logic. Some is solid numbers, some is guesswork based off solid numbers but not the right solid numbers. O.K., IDC says unit sales were up 12.3% while Dataquest said they were up 15.2%. So, what did ASPs do? We know that ASPs in the consumer area were down bigtime, in the 20-30% range, according to the stores and the distributors. 4Q is the big sales time for consumer boxes and 4Q price drops were the worst of the year. However, consumer pc sales were up much stronger than corporate sales. Intel gave a number that indicated that avg. pc prices were down from $2800 to $2100, which is about 25%%. That was an informal comment at a meeting and can't be given too much weight, but it certainly supports the idea that ASPs were in the toilet. Then we have the CPI report that said that computer sales were down 26% year to year. Again, a light weight on that one as it throws all computers together, not just pcs. But, again, no indication of a contradiction with the idea that prices were down 20-30%.
Then we get into comparative numbers. Workstations were down 3% despite 26% unit growth. High end servers were down 8% despite 24% unit growth. PC servers were up 8% despite 30% unit growth. So, you get a neighborhood effect and it is hard to see how 12 or 15% unit growth can produce anything but negative revenues.
Then there are other estimates. The lowest I have heard is PC Data's estimate of prices down 18% on average in 1998. That would make revenues down 3% on Dataquest numbers and nearly 7% on IDC numbers. I think PC Data gilded the lily a bit, so I think they were closer to down 10% on IDC numbers and 7% on Dataquest numbers. But, frankly, I would take the PC Data number as it leaves more room than my estimate for this year to be so much worse. <g>
The only estimate of revenues is Dataquest's preliminary +1%. They are going to give their final numbers in April in San Diego. I hope they tell the truth. If not, I would like to see how they defend a 1% growth number with their unit sales and ASP deterioration.
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