Hi Mark,
It's clear that PC demand at the OEM's is down from what we went into the quarter with. That naturally affects AMD, Intel and us in the HDD sector.
This is what is known to date:
Seagate desktop revenue for the quarter will be flat, with units up some, but pricing pressures continuing to keep revenue down. On the high-end, their units and revenues will be up. Overall, HDD revenue should be flat to "slightly up" but not the 6 to 8% some said at the start of this quarter.
Fujitsu will be down below the 6 million units shipped last quarter due to reduced demand (due also to some share loses at some OEMs in the mobile area). They are also seeing pricing pressures so their revenue will be down.
Samsung is claiming 3 million drives for the quarter (up from 2.4 Mln last quarter), is seeing reduced PC OEM demand but significant increases in channel demand and European sales.
Quantum is seeing flat unit shipments and consequently lower revenue due to the tuff pricing pressures.
Maxtor is expecting slightly higher unit shipments but likely will see flat revenues due to the price erosion.
IBM is seeing unit growth in the high-end (but look out, I understand Hitachi is coming on strong in the mobile and high-end space) and increased revenues.
WD - go figure. From what I hear, the higher unit shipments at Seagate, Samsung and Maxtor are coming at the expense of WD since the overall HDD industry shipments will be flat to slightly down for the quarter.
Relative to your "pet" HTCH, while unit shipments to other than IBM are likely down, the high-end stuff for IBM will likely keep them at flat revenues.
So let me know where you see holes in the proposition that "We barely hang on this quarter, but then it's revenue 'ouch' time next quarter?"
Regards,
LT |
