Notes on CNBS:
I happened to be home today. I usually have better things to do, but
CNBS seemed to be an appropriate backdrop for the flu-induced
delerium I was experiencing.
Of great interest was the post-game commentary with Ron Pisani,
Maria, and the comely blonde. Ron spent at least 15 minutes
explaining how the market hated the RJR deal.. since RN was up
"only" 3/8 on the news! I can remember when gaining 3/8 on a market
down day was something to be happy about, a sign of good relative
strength.
What would have been the sort of price movement needed to indicate
that the market liked the deal? Would RN need to move up 35 points,
like an internet stock? (Uh... what's up with that dividend sh!t,
anyway?)
On the other hand, they discussed the strength in the internets -
AMZN up 7 3/4, etc... They attributed the CMGI downdraft to the
news that the CEO is leaving... never mind that CMGI was up 26 on
the day at one point. The news was announced before open.
This is not evidence that the BK is at hand. Still... I remember
last summer, I happened to be at my broker's office (Scottsdale),
and chatted with the branch manager for a bit. It was a good DJIA
-325 day, and I was grinning ear to ear since I had some MER puts.
My broker thought the decline was eerie... the switchboard was oddly
silent... It was as if no one could believe that AMZN was down 15 or
MER was down 6... or no one cared, confident that AMZN would be up
30 the next day and MER 10.
We are very close to that level of hubris again. But... not quite.
BTW, CMGI reversed beautifully today. Look out below.
Andrew Aiken
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