LPAC's CY99 EPS looks like $0.60. Yahoo! board post #1607 breaks it out, and makes an analysis of 1998 performance excluding Pacific Video Canada, which was sold on May 15, 1998, and contributed no earnings in 98Q1, and only $0.01 in 98Q2, but which accounted for revs of $1.2M in 98Q1, and $1.6M in Q2, and whose absence is partly responsible for 98Q4 net margin expansion to ~20% from ~15% year ago.
LPAC has over $800,000 Q depreciation/amortization noncash expenses, or ~$0.10 per Q, so cash earnings much higher than reported earnings.
LPAC's accumulated deficit was $13.3M as of 98Q3, $11.4M(e) as of 98Q4 pre-announcement. LPAC won't pay taxes for two more years.
99Q1 revenues will likely be near Q4's, about 6% below for seasonal reasons, but perhaps offset by growth in nonseasonal DVD work, other growth.
Costs and expenses are fairly flat all year, and interest expense is steady.
98Q3/Q4/99Q1: $0.02/0.24+/0.15 = $0.41+
98Q3/Q4/99Q1: $0.12/0.34+/0.25 = $0.71+ CASH EARNINGS
99Q1 will likely be $0.15, up 114% from $0.07 98Q1.
99Q2 will likely be B/E, vs ($0.12) loss 98Q2.
CY99 earnings $0.60(e), up 173% over non-PVC 1998
CY99 cash earnings $1.00(e)
CY99 EBITDA $1.20(e)
Revenues per share $4
Excluding PVC and gain on PVC sale in 98Q2:
1998 Q EPS $0.07/(0.12)/0.02/0.24+ = $0.21+
1999 Q EPS(e) $0.15/0.00/0.10/0.35 = $0.60.
Yahoo LPAC board post #1607 goes into greater detail, and is more accurate than older posts using relatively rough numbers. Today I went over the 1998 10-Q's again, and crunched it out more carefully, resulting in very minor changes from past few weeks' posts.
Minimum current fair value P/E 15 times Q3/Q4/Q1 EPS $0.41+.
That puts minimum current fair value of $6+
That's only 10 times forward EPS $0.60(e) on 173% EPS
That's only 1.5 times revenues per share
Considering growth and outlook, 20 times earnings is fair.
That puts fair value now at $8+, on 114% EPS growth as of Q1(e)
That's only 13 times forward EPS $0.60(e) on 173% EPS growth
That's only 11 times Q3/Q4/Q1 cash EPS $0.71(e)
>>>$6-8 fair value NOW
>>>6-12 month target $12+ (20+ times CY99 EPS $0.60)
or 12+ times 1999 cash earnings.
See you at $4 soon.
Yes, myopiaman is Jim Mac. That's me. |
