Hi Sergio,
Saw that story the other day on the NOVL thread where the rumors have been discussed quite a bit.
As far as my options go I'd LOVE to be taken out at $40 by HWP. What a payoff that would be! But from the company's standpoint a buyout would short circuit a lot of long term growth and makes little sense. Eric Schmidt has a long term view and he's doing an incredible job turning NOVL around.
I don't see a buyout happening at all. Just as well. The companies are on divergent paths. NOVL is focused and on a tear, HWP is falling apart. I work closely with NOVL on a daily basis and their current level of focus on key objectives is as strong as it was at MCI during their best days in the kick-a$$ years from about '88 to '92. NOVL's having fun again. Schmidt understands synergy extremely well, and would never saddle his company with an albatross like unfocused, leaderless HWP.
Of course, one of the benefits HWP sees in NOVL is Schmidt and they probably would give him the top job, as the article says. But Schmidt has a long way to go at NOVL. He's done with the turnaround but revenue growth is just starting. Dealing with HWP at the same time would be too much for anyone to deal with and would just slow the whole thing down.
Here's a prediction. The whole thing will turn out to be a strategic partnership. NOVL's entire focus is on internet software development and strategic partnerships. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see Schmidt do a deal where he gets all the benefits and none of the problems from being under the same umbrella with HWP, ie, access to their customer base without selling the company. 90% of NOVL's entire focus is getting support for their NDS directory in every platform, operating system, router, switch, and computer they can get their hands on.
But $40 before the May options expire....wow, can't even fathom how cool that would be.
Phil |
