Hi PAinvestor:
I've got a decent set of contacts across the semi industry worldwide, who are extremely helpful to me. I learned a long time ago to trust only one guy's research,....my own,....but that said, it sure helps to have pals who can save me time in the digging.
Yes, I'm bearish with respect to memory producers for the foreseeable, mainly because I know firsthand what a mess the PC sector is in, and because so much of the produced memory products go into that market. I'm mainly bearish though, because of the pricing of memory producers' stock. Micron at current prices simply doesn't relate to the difficulties in the memory arena. The public has been sold a bill of goods by the analysts. Consequential profits are simply not possible given the current memory supply/demand situation and MU's financial circumstances.
It also causes me much worry that memory producers have become so proficient at improving yield, which precludes any let up in the pricing. I'm actually most comfortable with engineers, mainly because I revel in the remarkable abilities of the engineering guys and gals to make these incredible strides (they're my favourite people), but I also know that their skills at shrink will keep the whole sector under terrible price pressure.
Best, Earlie
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