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Technology Stocks : DOCS - A TURNAROUND PLAY
DOCS 40.28-2.6%Jan 14 3:59 PM EST
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To: Michael Watkins who wrote (1012)3/10/1999 6:14:00 AM
From: Michael Pascoe  Read Replies (2) of 1156
 
My tupence:

1) The deal is done
2) No amount of Yahooligan carping will change 1)
3) It is hard to see any financial difference between those that got the nod and those that didn't (well at least between OTEX and HUMC ... SOH is a different kettle of fish)
4) The HUMC talks would have been well in progress when both of the unsolicited offers were made. We may well have already seen the bidding war ... exciting wasn't it!
5) HUMC is peaking on the momentum of legacy income from its UNIX stuff. This will drop off fast, hence the acquisition frenzy, BI, KM and Workflow. BI is working out for them, now they have picked up a nice bit of KM (although they could have got the piece they need a year ago for a tenth of the price ... 20/20 hindsight is a lovely thing)
6) This does not bode well for the non KM parts of DOCS
7) DOCS stockpile of cash was getting mighty small (when one takes into account debt and income booked in advance of delivery)
8) Turning DOCS around from here was beginning to look like a big task requiring more money and patience than the market was prepared to bear.
9) Microsoft is about to seriously engage in the DM/KM marketspace (something that DOCS would be aware of but perhaps HUMC is not)
10) The short term effect on Michael's business will be minimal. In the medium term, the shift in focus may mean Michael has to learn new tricks.
11) A BI/KM integrated product is irrelevant (nice to have, but that's it)

Just random thoughts ....
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