' Can't be fixed, was: DC Weather Report #113 more options
Author: cory hamasaki
Email: kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net
Date: 1999/03/10
Forums: comp.software.year-2000
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On Tue, 9 Mar 1999 14:45:19, "John Galt" <consulting@NOSPAMc7.com> wrote:
> Regarding the PhyCor & Oxford business...
>
> IT foul-ups and business failures are a fact of life. They happen, and
> people suffer as a result.
This is not the issue. The broomdood position as promoted by beaks and
moshe, is that these problems can be fixed in 3 hours, a few days on the
outside. I'm glad that you have conceeded that problems are sometimes
intractable. You leave the question on the table, how common will these
be.
Consider the recent Wired article about card processing. Card
processing, punched cards is still a big business. The world works in
strange and mysterious ways.
> Unfortunately, Cory H. (like many doomers) seems to think that the fact that
> it happens in a small number of places is proof or evidence that it's going
> to be like this *everywhere*.
The point is that there have been serious IT failures. When 50,000 IBM
style mainframes and perhaps a million mini's transition to a new state,
a state that has never existed before, the unknown will happen.
> To quote Mr. Hamasaki: "It's about to happen again and this time, it will
> happen to all of us. How much warning do you need?"
>
> This automatic, unthinking pseudo-religious leap of *faith* is a hallmark
> characteristic of the doomer, and it shows up as this profound weakness in
> their perspective.
The converse is true. It is an indisputable fact that millions of
systems will transition to a new state. When Senator Bennett says, if
it happens today, it's TEOTWAWKI but (I have faith, I believe, I'm
crossing my fingers and wishing, really, really hard that somehow the
remediation fairy will wave her magic wand.) we still have more that 9
months.
Sorry, the closest we have to a remediation fairy is DD and Frank and
having met both of them, I don't expect to see either wearing a pink
tutu, hopping around, waving a wand with a star on it.
> To dig down to the bottom of the barrel and dig out the ugliest and
> rottenest apple, and then say "we are in trouble because they are all like
> this" is utterly ridiculous. This technique has been used most effectively
> by Paul Milne (who, I'm happy to say, I kill-filed months ago).
No-no, lookit, Dave Iancino's BankBoston, they went public in Newsweek,
June 2, 1997. They've been pressing hard since. They missed the
December 31, 1998 deadline but have been on the radio saying that they
hope to be done sometime this spring.
Wendell Ito's Hawaiian Electric, not done yet, also written up in the
June 2, 1997 Newsweek. Will be done soon, they hope.
USAA Insurance, they invented the term "Time Machine", where are they
now?
Those are the leaders. As for the rest of them, please feel free to
defend them. I can't.
> Unfortunately, Cory's technique is consistent with this doomish world view,
> which by now might even have hundreds of people doing the adult version of
> hiding under their blankies in fear of the Y2k bogeyman.
>
> The bottom line is this: citing specific examples of problems, and then
> saying or implying that it is going to be like this everywhere in an utterly
> groundless leap of faith; these people are doing nothing other than
> propagandizing the issues.
You got it bass-akwards.
USAA, BankBoston, Hawaiian Electric are indicators of the scope of the
problem. Nothing more. Go public, break a major sweat, press hard for
years, and still miss December 31, 1998.
PhyCor and Oxford Medical are proof that some things can't be fixed by
two geeks and VB. It simply negates the hallucination of "Fix on
Failure."
The astounding failure to make December 31, 1998, leaving all of 1999
for testing is an indicator as to where the overall industry is. I can
mutter about Ray So-Long and Jane Gravy-Train but that's like kicking
the mentally handicapped.
The rest of the analysis, that we're hosed big-time, I leave as an
exercise for the student.
> -JG
As to where this leads? That is what I don't know. Fire-fights in the
streets using fine quality, domestic manufactured assault rifles? A
pandemic as sanitation, water, and medical services break down? A 2nd
dustbowl, which I suspect most prole's believe was caused by the stock
market crash. I think the dustbowl is related to vagaries in the solar
wind and Cycle 23 may initiate a major drought.
It's time to get over the idea that the systems can be fixed or that
the failures won't be *that* bad or *that* widespread.
cory hamasaki 297 Days, 7,133 Hours, kiyoinc.com
The next WRP will be a special print issue going to all subscribers.
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