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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear?
XOMA 26.70-0.8%Jan 23 9:30 AM EST
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To: John Patterson who wrote (9074)3/10/1999 2:16:00 PM
From: Cacaito  Read Replies (2) of 17367
 
Patients are adjusted by Glasgow Scale. If the overall mortality is
lower then Bpi is working quite good.

There is no evidence anywhere that patients adjusted by Glasgow Scale
to be severely to gravely sick are doing better in England or anywhere
else.

Unless Xoma changed protocol to enter less severe cases, and there is
no evidence of that either.

Septic Shock from meningoccocemia is a swift killer.

Patients on early antibiotics will must probably not be subjects of
recruiment for Bpi trial.

The fact that informed-consent is required delay Bpi treatment (not other
treatments) and patients will be sicker due to that.

Many has been dreaming on early termination.

Many wants Xoma to publish more on the protocol (a lot is out,
just go back on the thread).

There would be no more data until the end of trial.

The previous DSMB description (post by Robert S) could not be better
to understand the length of trial.

The Azt prevention trial in pregnancy was oustanding and they have couple
of thousands subjects. Overwhelming data and still kept going.

But giving up a little, less imagine that most of the recruits are of
the less sick catergory (Glasgow 8 to 12 if I remember well) still
the mortality will be high in that group (20% to 30%).

The mortality in the Glasgow score above 12 is even higher, probably
in the 40% to 60% range.

Go back and check the Barcelona results (available in the thread), the
treatment there is very similar to England and they did account for
early antibiotics, as early as before having any sign of disease.
Still there was 5% mortality in that group. It shows how of a killer the
disease is. There are few disorders out there that physicians could start treatment
so early and still get 5% mortality.

Look at Angina pectoris (chest pain from lack of oxigen to parts of the
heart muscles) mortality is 4% to 6% and nobody wants this disease
nearby.

Finally, if mortality is 10% in the placebo group we should expect
the study to continue for the next 1 or 2 years if they could recruit
some 800 to 1000 patients during that time.

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