OPEC meeting contest
15 respondents voted some kind of cut.
9 voted against cuts
a couple are "other"
Interesting, one of the reasons cited for no cuts was that the supply demmand/balance was shifting so that cuts are not needed. Clearly the best of all worlds is to have both.
So here it is; the actual projections by the best and the brightest in the business. Recent events tend to support the cutters, but the fat lady hasn't sung yet.
Mike from La. (39134 ) From: K. Lingerfelt Saturday, Mar 6 1999 10:29PM ET Reply # of 39136
OPEC will agree to modest cuts. Oil demand will improve CQ3-4 and members start cheating again saying situation changed. Venezuala will drag feet complying. That's my prediction.
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To: K. Lingerfelt (39136 ) From: Mike from La. Saturday, Mar 6 1999 10:47PM ET Reply # of 39138
Here's my shot: OPEC announces cuts of 1.5 million, will be joined by Russia, Ecuador, Norway, Mexico, Columbia. "New era of cooperation to assure an orderly market." Mike
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To: Mike from La. (39134 ) From: Elmer Sunday, Mar 7 1999 1:11AM ET Reply # of 39160
FWIW, here is my prediction: Iran and Saudi Arabia (and the rest of OPEC of course) will agree to meet in the middle of their 300,000 barrel dispute on Iran's production baseline. This will enable OPEC to cut by 1.25 mmbpd with another .25 mmbpd of cuts coming from Non-OPEC producers for a total cut of 1.5 mmbpd. The cuts will last until the end of 1999. Also, the cuts already in place will be extended through the end of the year. $18 oil by year end!!! Always the Optimist, Elmer
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To: Mike from La. (39134 ) From: Ahmed Elneweihi Sunday, Mar 7 1999 2:13AM ET Reply # of 39160
They will not agree to new cuts but they will agree to adhere to the previously agreed upon cuts. Some Non-OPEC members will make some cuts. No more than 0.5 million bpd of additional cuts will result and oil will still go to at least $16.5 (target of the head and shoulder formation on the weekly continuation chart) because of higher than expected demand, especially from Asian countries and lower than expected supply because of marginal wells shut in.
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To: Mike from La. (39134 ) From: John Carpenter Sunday, Mar 7 1999 8:04AM ET Reply # of 39160
My prediction for March 23's OPEC meeting is that the producers will merely rollover the existing agreed cuts.
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To: Mike from La. (39134 ) From: Snewts Sunday, Mar 7 1999 9:11AM ET Reply # of 39160
Re. OPEC meeting contest.
I see a cut of about 1.2 to 1.8 million with buy-in from Ven., Mex., and even a token cut from Russia.
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To: Wildstar (39142 ) From: SliderOnTheBlack Sunday, Mar 7 1999 11:27AM ET Reply # of 39160
I believe at the least, they will pledge total adherance to current cuts. At the best, small additional cuts by both OPEC and non-Opec countries as well. I would not expect OPEC to cut without a pledge of the same from key non-Opec countries.
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To: Mike from La. (39134 ) From: Robert H. Sunday, Mar 7 1999 1:35PM ET Reply # of 39160
RE: OPEC
OPEC will hit the shorts with a new 1.5-2 mbpd cut. I expect to see a pullback around mid-April with a stabilization of the market throughout the summer and 16.00 oil by Sept.
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To: Mike from La. (39134 ) From: SargeK Sunday, Mar 7 1999 5:16PM ET Reply # of 39164
I guestimate reductions of 1.4mbpd total (OPEC & Non-OPEC) K
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To: Robert H. (39159 ) From: Big Dog Sunday, Mar 7 1999 5:39PM ET Reply # of 39169
I vote with Robert H. big
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To: Big Dog (39169 ) From: Douglas V. Fant Sunday, Mar 7 1999 5:56PM ET Reply # of 39171
Big Dog, I vote no OPEC cuts on the theory that OPEC does not need them- revised GNP indicators in Asia will follow with similar percentage increases in world oil demand....
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To: Mike from La. (39134 ) From: scotty Sunday, Mar 7 1999 5:26PM ET Reply # of 39171
RE:OPEC.....WAR will disrupt supplies....$23 ...I'll be either a clown or a genius...scotty
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To: Mike from La. (39167 ) From: James Cherney Sunday, Mar 7 1999 6:07PM ET Reply # of 39175
OPEC CONTEST I tend to agree with Ahmed that there will no new cuts and,furthermore, that the Saudis and other OPEC members cave to Iran's demand that its 300,000 barrel-per-day output cut should be from 3.9 million barrels a day, instead of 3.6 million that was contained in the June OPEC statement. I believe this intransigence on the part of the Iranians derailed the November talks. With the adjustment Opec could claim a 90% compliance. Non-OPEC members will maintain status-quo. Marginal well shut in and slow demand increase play to the best interests of the Saudi's and American interests as oil inches its way to $15
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To: Mike from La. (39176 ) From: Donaldm Sunday, Mar 7 1999 7:16PM ET Reply # of 39181
I think they are all hurting and this time will not cheat as much. Make my guess 2.15M/day cut. Donald
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To: Mike from La. (39176 ) From: Gary Burton Sunday, Mar 7 1999 7:34PM ET Reply # of 39181
Mike--Will you accept..."IF there is a meeting, OPEC itself will agree to cut an additional 1.0 (on top of the 98 cut).Non-OPEC would also make added cuts...But, the Meeting may be cancelled in advance because the various members will know before the meeting what the liklihood of agreeing to added cuts at the mtg would be."
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To: James Cherney (39173 ) From: Captain James T. Kirk Sunday, Mar 7 1999 7:43PM ET Reply # of 39182
Put me down for a total cut of all oil exports for a 2 week period to commence on 04/04/99, followed by an additional 1 mil cut.
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To: Mike from La. (39184 ) From: Harlan Moore Sunday, Mar 7 1999 8:23PM ET Reply # of 39194
Those OPEC guys crack me up. I vote 0-500,000 barrel cut. no more than 500,000. However, if crude is still trading up in the morning, I think I will vote with my pocket book and buy some more FLC. It's bloody cold in Seattle, and I'm burning oil like a mother. Teardown
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To: Mike from La. (39184 ) From: RBlatch Sunday, Mar 7 1999 8:55PM ET Reply # of 39194
I predict SA will cave on a portion of the Iraq quota it picked up during the Gulf War, to what extent I'm not sure; and I believe OPEC will announce 2mbd combined cut between OPEC and participating non=opec countries. Cordially, RBlatch
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To: Mike from La. (39163 ) From: ron peterson Sunday, Mar 7 1999 9:49PM ET Reply # of 39196
OPEC Contest--1.25mmbpd additional per day--OPEC and Non OPEC combined. Ron
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To: Mike from La. (39163 ) From: DavidG Sunday, Mar 7 1999 11:50PM ET Reply # of 39248
Mike, IMO No cuts. Iran and Venzuela are all talk and will not agree to making the additional cuts. Even if they did agree to cuts no one will believe it until they show they can conform to previously agreed to cuts.
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To: DavidG (39197 ) From: The Fix Sunday, Mar 7 1999 11:55PM ET Reply # of 39248
I tend to agree with your analysis 100%. What Iran says and Does are two totally different things. I say no cuts from OPEC and POO under $11 until August. fIXER
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To: Razorbak (39194 ) From: SliderOnTheBlack Sunday, Mar 7 1999 11:59PM ET Reply # of 39248
For the sake of the contest - it's merely a guess at this point in time; I ''guess'' that OPEC will NOT announce any new additional cuts; but will address the quota baseline issues and will pledge total compliance.
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To: SliderOnTheBlack (39199 ) From: Michael Happel Monday, Mar 8 1999 1:56AM ET Reply # of 39248
I vote with those who say OPEC won't cut further or if they do it will be a token gesture. As long as oil is trending up into the meeting, the immediate pressure to cut should be minimized.
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To: SliderOnTheBlack (39281 ) From: shust Monday, Mar 8 1999 4:38PM ET Reply # of 39294
I for one don't think OPEC is going to make cuts. I just can't see Chavez (Venezuela) cutting more.
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