Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: The Fix who wrote (39549)	3/11/1999 12:11:00 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (3) of 95453

The Fix, Be very careful. The market expects nothing of OPEC. If OPEC conjures up a 2mm bbl cut and the market believes that OPEC really means business,what with Asian economies improving, oil could move quickly back into the $18-20 bbl range and you could get your head handed to you on a platter. Oil markets move in long cycles both up and down. So if oil is moving to an upside market (and I am watching the gold stock index for confirmation of finally an end to the fourth cycle of a bear market in gold, which would signal an uptrend since gold leads all commodities to the upside), be careful as oil will move to the upside for a long period to come. With no cuts oil will still stay in the current $13-14 bbl range IMO. Now in any scenario I agree that traders will "sell the news". That's as good a bet on the downside as is buying integrated oil stocks a couple of days before dividends vest on the upside. So I'll agree with you there. IMO there's another factor lurking in all commodity prices worldwide that took commodities down and not just the Asian crisis - and it was Alan Greenspan's tight monetary policy.....Check that liquidity policy now....

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