If the rumor was true.....
Let's recap in general terms. In the November 10ksb filing, when talking about the various landholdings in Brazil and Peru, they said that valuation of those parcels could be subject to revaluation in the near term.
The old man made a good first quarter 1998 without even cutting much on their lands, and was reported as saying. "see, I don't even need land to make money"
In December, they report a web site coming up(they already had one) and much to their surprise, the share price zooms because of an idiot snake oil selling web site, not their great fundamentals and profits.
In January, the decision is finally made. Probably with great emotion to the family because I picture them being attached to these great expanses of land, They decide that to improve the business, develop better earnings, and solve the bottlenecks of the sawmills and shipping, they could use the cash that the beloved land that they really have never used, represents. They even talk about a spinoff of the enviromental subsidiary.
Two Sawmills, a plywood plant, a furniture molding plant, plenty of cash for the day to day business, perhaps even a stock buyback. With the more carefull reading of the SEC filing, perhaps even enough money to grease the wheels and get the 1 million acres in Nicuragua productive, thus either useful to the business for lumber or to sell off also. Read the report, this was great land and didn't show up anywhere in the assets, only in that one paragraph that I for one quit reading two years ago.
Who did know ALL about these assets, what they were worth, and may have even wanted to sell them off years ago, and was booted out by the family for it? Who wood see the money to be made here and decided to get his finger in and go to a large company that could definately get the most out of these assets and up the ante? The former CEO From 3 short weeks ago www3.techstocks.com about 5 posts ahead of this and 5 behind talk about this subject.
1.8 million acres of land at $150 an acre is worth $270 million. Divide that by 90,000,000 shares and you see $3 a share, not to mention the sawmills and rights to log the other lands.
But they have to be careful. There are anti takeover measures in place, The family will get some incentives.
I would say $3 is the top, and if they all want a lot of LAWSUITS, $1 is the bottom. IF the rumor and speculation is true, I would guess between $1.50 - $2. Anyone else? |
