Once the good news gets out about March sales.....boxmakers (including Dell) will perk up...Non-warning from Intel (and non-warning from Compaq) tomorrow will help stem the tide, and will probably pop the boxmakers up a bit (Dell..at least 45, IMO) over the next few trading days...
In this rally, I think the big caps techs are going to take over real soon....
IMPORTANTLY, Dell is behaving (so far) very similar to previous quarters...It is clear that there has (so far) been no melt-down from investor/trader confidence in Dell (because of last quarter...future fears)...If that were the case, I would expect Dell would be at 39-40 right now...or it would go there in the next week or two....So, the "meltdown" in stock price which would have occurred had investors/traders really lost confidence in this stock, has not occurred...It seems highly unlikely that more bad news (than good news) is going to come out concerning PC sales over the next month to 6 weeks...so, they (bears) have about used up their bullets over the past few weeks...(short-term)..
Right now, it is going to be hard for anything to go down, IMO, over the next week or two...
First half of quarter, Dell always weak...because it is too early to be making news releases (about how good the quarter is going to be)..we are in earnings warnings period...and, probably, lot of investors take a rest from Dell for a bit (rotate in other plays)...
in this period, Dell stock price is subject to a large extent to news generated by other companies, the economy, etc...
Intel is going to help a lot...we are almost there...
P.S. Remember 3 weeks ago, when the thread was flooded with people saying that Dell was going to 35 or lower...where are they now? They know that the fear game is up...they have covered their shorts and moved on....saving their rhetoric for the next time Dell falls 20% or more (after it probably gains 2x, 3x from here...) |
