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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (51431)	3/11/1999 3:05:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (1) of 132070

Well! DELL needs to rope in an additional 280K units to put their numbers back on the board in Q1. They ship in 4- 5 days average so it looks like the 100k is more or less normal backlog. So I guess I am not that impressed. I believe Gabriel is the one who brought this up. So I would not consider this a confirmed number. IDC overestimated DELL's shipments last quarter by 92K units. There is uncertainty in the numbers that I have not been able to reduce. As I mentioned earlier, I think it is still too early to tell how well DELL will do this quarter. I do expect more bad news out of CPQ and INTC because of the 14.7% reduction in unit shipments from Q4. This is more severe than last year when the channel was stuffed. Last year Q1 was down by only 8% with heavy channel stuffing. However, DELL differentiated by reporting very good growth in Q1 of last year. So I am waiting for more tea leaves to read. JK

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