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Technology Stocks : DoubleClick Inc (DCLK)

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To: KeepItSimple who wrote (812)	3/11/1999 9:57:00 PM
From: ayahuasca	Read Replies (1) of 2902

Reasons I think you dont get it. 1) The stock market,whether you like it or not, is not a valuation calculator. There are too many factors involved, especially now when our world is changing like never before. The growth rates of companies leading the way in this new medium (the internet) is unprecedented. The opportunities that are being created as a result of the internet are beyond calculation. There is a revolution at hand and people are excited about it. I know my life is significantly different than it was 5 years ago as the result of my getting 'wired'. Can you tell me another time when the landscape of our culture changed this dramatically this quickly? I cant think of one. 2) You discredit the idea of psychology having a legitimate role in the stock market. Yes, ultimately stock prices are tied to their companies underlying fundamentals. However these fundamentals are not static, certainly in the case of internet companies. People are projecting their enthusiasm for the potential of some these companies. There is no question in my mind that many of the companies being assigned lofty valuations now will be worth far less 3 years from now. But that doesnt make investing in them now stupid or irrational because some of these companies will be worth far more than their 'lofty' current valuations. The game now is to find those that will make it. I like DCLK's chances in this regard and have for a while now. Maybe I'll be wrong but I believe this company is one of the true gems out there. 3) More to the psychology issue....because stocks are priced based largely on fundamental projections they necessitate a certain amount of guesswork. You can crunch all the numbers you want but you cant tell me what DCLK's revenues will be in one years time. You can guess based on alot of relevant factors but ultimately that is what it all comes down to; an educated guess. And when you are dealing with things that are uncertain you get that beautiful human element- emotion. This is all part of it. People want in on the internet and its potential. When a stock splits it doesnt change a thing fundamentally- you're absolutely right. However it does several other things. a) it draws attention to the stock b) it makes it more affordable to buy to alot of people. This is not something that should be shirked off. I never used to look at stocks that were over 60 or 70 bucks a share. I simply didnt have the funds to buy what I considered a significant amount of shares (like 75 or so). I would always limit my search of potential buys to stocks that I deemed affordable. By splitting DCLK will fall into the range of many people that werent really looking at it before. This seems perfectly reasonable to me. DCLK is becoming a known leader and I'll bet that there will be plenty of people who want in on an internet leader that hasnt flown to the moon yet (you'll note that DCLK's market cap is far less than that of other internet category leaders). At 50-60 a share people will be more attracted to it. c) it improves liquidity and opens the door for higher institutional invlovement (at least at DCLK's stage where they dont have a ton of shares out already). A split has plenty of positive characteristics for a good stock. Anyway, enough rambling. I dont mean to be didactic. I just feel that so many people look at the internet stocks and laugh in disdain. This is a major cultural thing; a paradigm shift. I decided long ago that I wanted to be along for the ride. I still feel that way. Good luck to you.

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