In response to Vince Moretto's comments about how the Kazak government has been so maladroit with foreign investors, I still am looking for some substantial proof of that.
I really am open to some good criticism of my investment in LEAH, such as Vince offered, and I actually thank him for that, but I see no reason to not buy more stock in LEAH at these prices.
What I did learn after some research of SEC filings of AIPN and after reading about 1000 posts over on the AIPN thread in my spare time, was that AIPN might be a really good long- term investment as a value- play, now that the price is so low. However, the fall in share price should not be directly attributed to anything that the Kazaks did to them. Instead, I see that they had a lease and an agreement with that government to develop an area in the Tengiz oil field which could not be completed due to lack of funding. They began to become discounted because the reserves where not proven and they could not obtain funding to drill, especially as the price of oil declined and Russia and Asia were seen in bad economic terms. I see that a company that formed a partnership with them had kazak citizens as principles, even one was supposedly the brother to the president of the country! Now, I'm sure that Vince knows a lot more about how things fell apart in the agreement, but nonetheless they seem to still have the rights to the lease of that oil field. I see what probably hurt AIPN more than anything else was a convertible debenture made by a group called the Hunts, now in the Cayman Islands. Any wise investor knows what can happen to convertible debentures when they start to dilute shareholder value. I don't know much, but these are the facts as I see them, if you want more, read from the source over there.
There are some pretty bright minds over there on the AIPN thread, it is kind of scary, you know-- even the best minds sometimes lose their shirts in investments.
In all my reading, I gleaned some posts that are valuable or at least interesting to me:
Message 1808966
Message 1827484
Message 6851352
Message 1839904
Message 6883805
Message 1859882
Message 1860767
Message 6851317
I wish to call these some essential readings.
I wouldn't despair about all of the recent sells, I think that there was a lot of short- term traders getting out, and figure they'll just keep LEAH on their radar for a sizeable 'pop' with news. The recent decline has most likely exceeded short- term investors maximum allowance of loss. |
