Jason,
I've been following NRLD because the bone densitometry field only has three major players(HOLX, LUNR, NRLD). Unfortunately for Norland, and fortunately for you (since you got out) Norland is non competitive at least on the short term. The reason is that Hologic and Lunar are
clearly dominating the axial bone densitometry (spinal and cervical) market. Peripheral bone densitometry, (which NRLD specializes in) has only limited capability in the diagnosis and treatment of osteoporosis, axial densitomitry (HOLX, LUNR) is what doctors recomend for the confirmation diagnosis. The Medicare reimbursement reduction for peripherial densitometry is somewhat of a short-term issue, however, I think the real longer term issue is the ability of
Norland to make significant market share gains in the larger axial arena...
Conclusion: This is a sell, unless Norland makes quicker and higher profile newsmaking changes within their market, and they have had every opportunity to do so, this is a stock to takea wide berth from...except if you like spike trading, the mean will be around 6 3/4...
However, LUNR and HOLX share a two company monopoly in axial bone densitometry, and are priced at least 3 times higher...at your peril |
