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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 662.63

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Nov 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: Moominoid who wrote (8035)	3/12/1999 8:08:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) of 99985

INDEX UPDATE =========================================== Its quite obvious that all of my short-term techncials are in the extreme overbought region(CLASS SELL status), but it is also obvious that we are in a manic buying period. So the question is when will it end. Yesterday afternoon, from about 1:00-2:30, the DOW dropped over 100 points, and the TICK dropped over 1500 points from +500 to -1000, so it was obvious that there were strong sell programs then. That selling started when the DOW was at 9930. So some of the big boys started to get ready for some selling before 10000. The number of calls is much greater than the PUTs so I am expect an arbitrage situation to the downside in light of expiration next week. The MAX PAIN for the OEX is at 625 for MARCH expiration. pipeline.com The NAZ has not been supporting the rally in the DOW and the market internals are not improving. The DOW was up 124 points and the NEW HIGHs & NEW LOWs were about even around 80. So yesterdays rally was still narrow. In light of such Im more inclined to say that the market should dip within the next few days and that the DOW will not get much above 10000 before the selling starts. Towards that end of MARCH there should be one more rally into early April, and I am expecting some very strong selling in April. Also, early APRIL is the top in the 9-month cycle. Seeya

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