Hi,
I'm new to this board but not to SFSK. In recent months I have grabbed this stock when it dipped to low 18's and always made a quick profit. Consequently I jumped on it at 18 1/16 the other day. I was actually reading the very bullish CC at the time. Scooped up more at 15 5/8 yesterday. Obviously, in hindsight, a stupid move.
When I screw up like this, I try to figure out where I went wrong and see if I missed something. In this case, when the observation about Morgan Stanley being the big seller was made, I should have looked at how many shares the largest shareholders had. This morning I checked. Nicholas-Applegate had 3,391,294, Bear Stearns had 2,094,060 and Morgan Stanley had 1,766,501. Obvioulsy when the volume was over 5 million, I (we) could have ascertained, well before trading was halted, that this wasn't just a big shareholder reducing his position--the assumption I was making. Oh well, live and learn.
From my experience (way too much) with previous blow-ups, the price will probably crash at the open and then some bargain hunters will probably come in around 10-10:30 when we will likely see the high for the day. This will be the time to sell. It might drop to absurdly low levels in the initial selling frenzy which could afford the brave an opportunity to buy some shares really really cheap.
I had the misfortune of owning some ABH when accounting errors were reported. The stock was punished way worse than the errors merited. It actually dropped to less than $1.50 for about 1/2 hour.
The lawyers will definitely be all over this. My hard earned experience suggests that this will be the first of several shoes to drop no matter what management says. Take the tax loss and move on. Buy it back many months from now if there is clear evidence that the problems are solved but don't expect a turn around any time soon. Not only have they screwed up running the business but they have compounded the problem by being less than candid with the street.
Good luck to all of us,
Bob |
