Allen: And so for some perspective, I'll mention that none of my Latin American stocks is working out for me.
ELAMF. Stock still going nowhere and near its low. I continue to hold.
UBB: Up. Nice recommendation by Arrnin Sternberg and Mike Burry. I lost confidence and sold at a loss. A Brazilian bank stock with fundamentals that still looks good, but I wrongly gave up on it.
BLX: Another ‘bank' stock. It loans money very short term for trading/shipping co's. I figured it would NOT decline with Brazil problems, but I didn't have enough courage-of conviction to buy. Stock is up without me. I may revisit this stock yet.
UNMG: still holding, but still a loser for me. A fruit juice company which I've posted on here before. They are selling below private market value (that would be by my comparable analysis). I thought they might do well also because their North American citrus crop competitors were hurt by bad weather. Looks like I'm wrong in that idea too.
I'm 0 for 4. So I think if I'm going to invest in individual Latin American companies, then I'm going to have to have to change something. I think I will need something that's somewhat isolated from specific country exchange rate fluctuations. Something with a long term positive perspective or else something dramatically and drastically undervalued. ( But I can't find anything drastically undervalued because I can't figure out the valuations, or the implications for the associated currency.) But what I really want- for me- is something that will help me sustain my belief in the company when/if things go bad with the political situations, the currency risks, etc.
I believe I have found a Buffett stock that will work out short term (3 years) , and that I might bet will be ‘okay' long term. It's PB – Panamco - Panamerican Beverages - largest soft drink bottler in Latin American and one of the world's largest Coca-Cola bottlers. They are an ‘anchor bottler' for KO. Revenue and dividends are on an uptrend, but of course earnings are hurt by Latin America problems. Stock is a value stock on some measures (esp. by relative p/bv and psr) – but I think I will try to look at it as if it were a Buffett type stock (which it is)—so maybe I won't scare myself out of it if /when it drops lower.
Stock is near its low--- I figure most all those who want out have departed the stock-- for now. (until the next ‘problem' -g-) So if things don't get worse, and with the inexorable rise of population (aside: unless Mr. Buffett himself is able to arrest that—I read he likes the Zero Pop. Growth charities) and with perhaps a rise to better living standards in Latin America—I think Buffett's managers at KO should be able to work their stuff on Latin America too (KO owns a chunk of PB) and get those people to upgrade their tastes to the caramelized carbonated fructose liquid that folks here in the USA are so fond of. And for me, at least it's a product or consumer item I might be able to fool myself into thinking might endure or persevere in bad times (unlike UBB, ELAMF - companies whose business and output are hard to see unless you are actually right there in the country).
So I'm altering my focus a bit and starting a position in PB.
regards, Paul
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