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Technology Stocks : Brightpoint - CELL

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To: Paul Shread who wrote (1437)	3/12/1999 10:32:00 AM
From: Grabs	Read Replies (2) of 1999

The following is just my opinions, not investment advice. Here's why I don't think we'll see the teens again soon (although I hope we will). Basically, earnings estimates were averaging $1 per share in 1999, and analysts were giving CELL multiples from 20-30x depending upon the analyst. That gave us a $20-30 price target for CELL (pre-tanking). If we take away the first quarter income of $0.22, and the company earns $0.78 per share, with the same multiple range of 20-30x EPS, the price targets would fall to $15.60 to $23.4. I think we can forget about this scenario because (i) the company does not appear likely to earn $0.78 for the year given the uncertain outlook, and (ii) multiples are lileky to contract to 15-20x rather than 20-30x given the uncertainty. The most likely case is that CELL will earn $0.50-0.60 for the year and with a multiple of 15-20, that gives us a range of $7.50 to $12.00 through 1999. All this is just my opinion, but unfortunately, I tend to think like an equity analyst sometimes and can see the writing on the wall. Grabs

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